AGE - CRIME CURVE INCLUDING CRIMINAL JUSTICE IN THE SOCIETY AND LIFE SOLUTION
CRIME
General
1. The age crime curve, increasing to a peak in the teenage years and then decreasing, is well-known. Less well-known is that it seems to reflect variations in prevalence rather than incidence. Age crime curves for individuals do not resemble the aggregate curve since incidence does not change consistently between the onset and the termination of criminal careers. This has major implications for criminal justice policy since the greatest residual length of criminal careers, and hence the greatest potential incapacitate effect, may be between ages thirty and forty, not at the peak age. Different types of offenses peak at different ages; this probably reflects crime switching rather than the replacement of one group of offenders by another. There is little specialization in offending, but specialization does increase with age. Age effects need to be separated from period and cohort effects. The age crime curve probably reflects decreasing parental controls, a peaking of peer influence in the teenage years, and then increasing family and community controls with age.
Crime
2. Violent crime is a major cause of social instability, injury, and death in low and middle income countries (LMIC). Longitudinal studies in high income countries (HIC) have provided important evidence on developmental precursors of violence and other antisocial behaviors. However, there may be unique influences or different risk factor effects in other social settings. Dimensions of comorbid psychopathology such as low self control, hyperactivity, and sensation seeking are associated with antisocial behavior in low- and middle income countries but some early physical health factors have consistently weak or null effects.
Key Risk Factors
3. Different types of antisocial behavior have different geographic patterns. Homicide, the most serious form of interpersonal violence, shows enormous variation across both time and space. Developmental and life course theories of antisocial behavior highlight the influence of individual and environmental processes involved in self control, moral reasoning, social bonding, and social learning from early life through adulthood.
4. Key risk factors identified include individual factors such as impulsivity, low IQ, and low school achievement; parenting factors such as poor supervision, punitive or erratic discipline, cold attitude, and child physical abuse; other parent and family characteristics, such as parental conflict, disrupted families, antisocial parents, large family size, and low family income; antisocial peers, high delinquency rate schools, and high crime neighborhoods. Results are not always consistent across studies, Complex interactions still need to be clarified and the identification of causes, as opposed to mere statistical associations, remains a major challenge but increasing progress is being made.
Theories, Aims and Definitions
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5. Why risk factors might influence antisocial behavior differently across social contexts and specify our aims and definitions.
A. Why Might Risk Factors for Antisocial Behavior Not Be Universal?
6. It is possible that risk factors previously identified reflect universal patterns of human behavior and that similar empirical patterns will obtain consistently across all societies. Many studies show that parental supervision has stronger effects on child antisocial behavior in high-risk social settings than in less deprived contexts. Therefore, looking across the globe to consider populations in radically different socioeconomic and cultural circumstances in LMICs, there may be systematic variability in risk factor associations according to geographic location.
Environment
7. Individual vulnerability factors (such as genetic disposition) result in antisocial behavior only if provoking agents in the environment are also present. For example, adoption studies have shown that increased genetic risk for antisocial behavior, indicated by biological parents having a criminal record, predicts antisocial behavior only when adopting families also present some form of environmental risk. Hence, individual level risk factors should have larger effects in disadvantaged environments that trigger those dispositions.
Biological
8. A contrasting theoretical perspective predicts that individual level risk factors will have weaker associations with antisocial behavior in high risk environments because strong social forces override individual level influences in these settings. Accordingly, biological risk factors should have their strongest influence on antisocial behavior in relatively benign social environments and, by contrast, be overridden in contexts of high social adversity.
Risk Factor Effects
9. The relative distribution of a risk factor across the population is another facet of social meaning that could alter a risk factor’s effects. Specifically, a risk factor’s influence might depend on a person’s relative social standing rather than an absolute effect. A clear example is the advantage that educational attainment buys in the job market: large population increases in educational attainment have altered the minimum qualification level required to obtain skilled jobs.
10. Thinking cross sectionally, risk factor effects could also vary between countries because of different distributions of risk factors between populations. For example, varying levels of income inequality might mean that low family income has different associations with antisocial behavior across different countries.
Summary
11. In summary, from theoretical perspectives, different broad empirical predictions may be made about patterns of risk factor effects in LMICs. Risk factor associations should be consistent both in and across LMICs compared with HICs. Second, individual and family level risk factors would be expected to have stronger effects in LMICs than in HICs because of the higher likelihood of exposure to additional social disadvantage in LMICs.
Aim
12. Considering the importance of synthesizing evidence on predictors of antisocial behavior in LMICs, My aim is to to identify and characterize existing longitudinal studies of antisocial behavior in LMICs.
Definitions
13. LMICs are defined as countries with a low or middle income status according to the World Bank; they are also sometimes referred to as developing countries. Because a country’s income status can change from year to year, we defined LMICs as countries classified as low or middle income countries. Despite enormous sociocultural heterogeneity across low and middle income countries, most have elevated rates of absolute poverty, income inequality, and violence, placing families, communities, and youths at greater risk.
Conduct Problems
14. 'Conduct problems' refer to antisocial behaviors in childhood and adolescence that are symptomatic of oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorders. We acknowledge that LMICs are spread across a wide range of cultures, and there is not a consensus about the universality of psychiatric disorders, given the lack of biological markers and gold standards for validation
Aggression
15. Aggression refers to behaviors intended to cause physical or psychological harm to others. We examine risk factors for child and adolescent aggression separately from general conduct problems because of the large literature on aggression as a specific type of conduct problem, with different developmental patterns, subtypes, and potentially different prognoses and risk factors.
Violence
16. Violence is defined as 'the intentional use of physical force or power, threatened or actual … that either results in or has a high likelihood of resulting in injury, death, psychological harm, maldevelopment, or deprivation. Violence can be measured using self reports or reports by other knowledgeable people (such as parents or teachers) or by collecting official records that is from police or court records). Findings on risk factors for youth crime that includes nonviolent offending, for two reasons. First, nonviolent offending is one manifestation of conduct disorder, and second, violent and nonviolent criminal behaviors are highly associated.
Antisocial Behavior
17. Antisocial behavior refers to a wide variety of behaviors that violate societal norms or laws that includes the various behaviors we examine like child aggression and conduct problems and youth violence and crime. Given the strong correlations between these behaviors, some researchers consider them manifestations of the same underlying individual potential for antisocial conduct.
Drug and Alcohol Use
18. Drug and alcohol use might contribute to antisocial behavior in several ways, including through physiological changes that increase disinhibited behavior, disruption of family and social bonds, involvement in theft to purchase drugs and increasing contact with organized violent groups involved in drug trafficking. Substance use problems could also be an indicator of a broad externalizing behavior syndrome, underpinned by a common construct of behavioral disinhibition. As such represent a marker rather than an explanatory cause of other antisocial behaviors. Although drug use is generally less common in LMICs than in HICs. It is associated with greater risk of mortality in LMICs than in HICs.
Religiosity
19. Religiosity has been theorized to be protective against antisocial behavior. However a small number of LMIC studies suggest antisocial behavior might have a small association with low levels of social competence, having an external locus of control and having attitudes favorable to delinquency. The limited evidence available in LMICs suggests no association between antisocial behavior and sociability or religiosity.
Harsh, Coercive and Rejecting Parenting
20. Parental harsh and inconsistent discipline is considered an important risk factor contributing to escalating difficulties in parent-child interactions and the onset and persistence of behavior problems. Familial confounding and child effects (child behavior causing harsh parenting) are relevant, quasi-experimental studies and randomized experiments are consistent with the view that harsh parenting is a causal risk factor for antisocial behavior.
Maltreatment
21. Maltreatment and other adverse life events dictates stressful life experiences including maltreatment predict a range of adverse health and behavioral outcomes. The effects of multiple stressful events have been highlighted as of particular importance for children’s development. Stress can affect neurocognitive and endocrine systems, children’s relationships and learning processes that are implicated in the development of antisocial behavior.
Parental Mental Health and Behavior
22. Parental care of children may be compromised if parents themselves experience stress and mental health problems This is potentially a major issue in LMICs where rates of maternal mental disorders are estimated to be significantly higher than in HICs.Higher rates of mental disorders among poor populations in LMICs are driven by experiences of anxiety associated with economic insecurity, hopelessness regarding future opportunities, rapid social changes, and risks of violence and physical ill health.
Family Poverty, Parental Education, and Employment
23. Poverty and low socioeconomic status can influence child development through proximal influences in the home, such as undernutrition or overcrowding and through more distal mechanisms such as reduced educational opportunities. Therefore, children from impoverished backgrounds in LMICs may be at increased risk for conduct problems or violence.
Research
24. Severe traumas commonly experienced in LMICs, such as female genital mutilation, being orphaned for different reasons and stresses associated with child labor, are important areas for future research. Research with a resilience framework would be particularly valuable to consider ways in which individuals may cope with such traumas in LMIC contexts. Another research priority is to develop understanding of how macro-level influences that are known to covary with violence, such as illegitimate state institutions and national levels of income-inequality. New studies should increase construct and internal validity by using multiple informants, well-validated and culturally adapted measures and appropriate designs to increase understanding of causal mechanisms.
Further Study
25. New and more studies need to be conducted and additional results will become available from more diverse settings across LMICs. Iit will become possible to assess the robustness of the current findings and identify causes of heterogeneity between study results. Understanding of the processes involved in the development of conduct problems, aggression, and delinquency across different cultures could be substantially enhanced from comparative longitudinal studies. These would be studies that are based on comparable sampling strategies, measurement tools, and analytic approaches in two or more populations with different cultural, economic, or social characteristics. Such studies would allow research to rule out many of the possible methodological reasons for heterogeneity between studies and provide a much better basis for understanding the extent to which there is cross-cultural variation in mechanisms leading to antisocial behavior.
Measures to Improve
26. A series of measures could help to improve comparability of developmental risk factor research across LMICs and human societies more generally. First, it seems important that studies conducted in different cultures use comparable and cross-culturally validated instruments to measure core constructs such as parenting, self-control, or aggression. Organizations such as the UNICEF Office of Research or the World Health Organization can help to promote good practice through recommendations. Second, developmental studies should be encouraged to publish research protocols similar to protocols for experimental studies. This would help to improve understanding of which putative risk factors were measured in a study and to what extent published results are based on fishing expeditions or on hypothesis-driven deductive reasoning.
Conclusion
27. The most robust findings that emerge from the studies are that conduct problems tend to persist; dimensions of comorbid psychopathology such as low self-control, hyperactivity, and sensation seeking are also associated with antisocial behavior; many risk factors appear to have roughly the same average effects as when studied in HICs; and some early health factors have weak or null effects. The time is ripe for a new generation of collaborative research, with carefully coordinated methods, to identify global and context-specific mechanisms involved in the development of antisocial behaviors.
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