Saudi King Will Have Crown Prince Replaced
Crime and Justice
General
1. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman could have his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), replaced to restore the credibility of the monarchy which has faced global rebuke following the brutal murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, according to Colonel Brian Lees, Britain's former defense attaché to the kingdom and the author of a famous book on the Saudi royal family. The crown prince is believed to have been ordered the assassination of the dissident journalist in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. The world has reacted angrily to the murder amid weeks of repeated denials from Saudi authorities that the kingdom had nothing to do with his disappearance.
2. Khashoggi – a US resident, The Washington Post columnist, and a leading critic of bin Salman entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2 to obtain a document certifying he had divorced his ex wife, but he did not leave the building. Saudi officials originally insisted that Khashoggi had left the diplomatic mission after his paperwork was finished but they finally admitted several days later that he had in fact been killed inside the building during "an altercation.'
Murder of Khashoggi
3. On Thursday, Saudi prosecutors said the murder was planned and suspects were being interrogated. Several countries, including European ones, Turkey and the US, a major ally of Riyadh, have called for clarifications on the murder. Colonel Lees, who once served as Britain’s defense attaché to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, said in an interview on Wednesday that the crown prince's days as de facto ruler are numbered. He added that the 82-year-old monarch may now look to replace him.
4. 'The Saudis will never admit that MBS was culpable but this does not mean that he is in the clear. I believe that the king – assuming he is in one of his ‘clear’ periods – will get rid of MBS by replacing him,' noted Lees, the author of A Handbook of the Al Saud Ruling Family of Saudi Arabia. 'He cannot do so immediately or even in the next few months, because that would look like bowing to foreign pressure. He may use the already established device of using the special advisory council within the family to appoint a successor. This would certainly restore the credibility of the monarchy,' he stated.
Crackdown on Corruption
5. Since launching his crackdown on corruption last year, Prince Mohammed has limited the movements of several royals deemed as political rivals, including Mohammed bin Nayef, whom he replaced as crown prince last year, as well as some sons of the late King Abdullah. MBS has also created a great deal of animosity towards himself from inside the Al Saud family, many of whose members he has arrested as part of his crackdown on corruption. The young prince also faces strong opposition at home for his bombing of Yemen, siege on Qatar and his closeness with Israel.
Trump's Acknowledgement
6. On Wednesday, Trump went a step further and said the crown prince bore ultimate responsibility for the operation that led to the journalist's killing. 'The team visiting Istanbul were certainly not tourists and the person seen to leave the consulate in Khashoggi’s clothes was obviously not him. Even Trump now admits that this was the most inept cover-up of all times.' 'The international community’s response has been stumbling. 'Trump has changed his mind daily but is likely to bow to Congressional pressure.'
French Newspaper News
7. The French newspaper Le Figaro citing a diplomatic source in Paris reported that Saudi Arabia’s ruling family is looking to replace the young prince with his less ambitious brother, Prince Khalid bin Salman. The source told the newspaper that the Saudi Allegiance Council had secretly met to discuss the issue of Khashoggi. The council, which appointed bin Salman as the new crown prince last year by breaking the customary rules of succession, is now planning to appoint Khalid, the current Saudi envoy to the US, as deputy crown price.
Return Home of a Senior Saudi Arabian Prince
8. The return home of a senior Saudi Arabian prince has raised speculation of a rebalancing of power in the ruling family as it grapples with a political crisis caused by the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. The return from London of Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, a younger brother of King Salman, comes as questions are raised over the position of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler. Fears over his involvement in Khashoggi’s death, allegedly authorised by the prince’s close advisers, have cast doubt on his judgment and competence. The government has pledged to hold those responsible for the killing to account.
Boost to Royal Family
9. His return is a 'boost to the legitimacy of family rule by signalling optically a closing of ranks and a possible return to traditional consensus based rule, said one diplomat. Despite Prince Ahmed’s return and the foreign pressure on Riyadh, no change in the line of succession appears imminent. Prince Mohammed remains in a strong position, having consolidated power by taking into his orbit the national guard and interior ministry, power centres that were previously in the grip of family rivals that he has since sacked and placed under house arrest.
Discussion of Royal Family
10. Earlier this month, the royal family met to discuss the Khashoggi crisis. People aware of the matter said conflicting news emerged, with speculation that a change in royal structure would prompt Prince Mohammed to share power with a more senior member of the family who could check his influence. Prince Ahmed was overlooked as a potential successor after a brief stint as interior minister in 2012, a tenure described by some as undistinguished.
11. His return from self imposed exile in London, where he was filmed apparently criticising the king and Prince Mohammed over the war in Yemen, surprised observers. Saudi opposition figures say Prince Ahmed has received assurances from western governments that his safety would be guaranteed, given his fears of being placed under house arrest by Prince Mohammed, who is known as MBS. 'Ahmed may be assuming that greater respect will be paid to senior figures like himself in the future,' he said. “Giving Ahmed an important job, possibly security related, isn’t out of the question either, not out of any mooted power sharing but to suggest change and present a united front after MBS’s previous sidelining of senior princes.
Change of MBS
12. 'Senior family members believe there will have to be change now,' said one consultant with close ties to the royal family. 'Such a crisis means there will have to be some changes.' The operation against the Saudi journalist, compounded by the attempt at a cover up and mishandling of communications around what Riyadh has described as a tragic mistake, has damaged the reputation of the young prince, once feted by the west as a reformer seeking to modernise Saudi Arabia. 'He’s damaged goods now,' said one banker who works with the royal family. Rumours about Prince Mohammed’s future have swirled as western capitals express alarm about the erratic and authoritarian tendencies of the prince and his close cabal of advisers. Prince Ahmed, King Salman’s last surviving full brother, returned to Riyadh on Tuesday, and was reportedly met at the airport by Prince Mohammed.
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